Diversification Impact Explorer
In venture capital, the difference between concentrated and diversified exposure is not incremental — it's structural. Move the slider and watch the illustrative probability distribution change.
The direction is grounded in Esinli’s research: emerging managers carry a fatter downside tail (27% of Fund I–III never reach 5% IRR vs. 19% of established funds), which diversification is meant to spread
Roughly 80% of VC returns come from 22–30% of vintages, so diversifying across vintages and managers is itself a selection discipline — not only risk reduction
Distribution shape is illustrative — actual outcomes depend on vintage, strategy, and manager quality
Model assumes funds of similar strategy and vintage mix
Probability distributions shown are an illustrative model, not a sourced study result. They depict a simplified, directional relationship — as the number of underlying funds rises, the outcome distribution tightens — and do not represent the expected performance of any Esinli Capital fund or any specific investment. Actual outcomes depend on manager selection, vintage year, market conditions, and other factors.
Esinli Capital is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or member of FINRA or SIPC. Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All inputs are illustrative. All outputs are estimates based on simplified models. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.