Diversification Impact Explorer

In venture capital, the difference between concentrated and diversified exposure is not incremental — it's structural. Move the slider and watch the probability distribution change.


1 fund
1 fund1530 funds
Outcome distribution · Dark bars = capital loss zone
Estimated capital loss probability
~20%
Single fund concentration
Diversification benefit
None
Benefits continue increasing until ~20–25 funds
Reference comparison
CONCENTRATED (1–3)
~20%
loss probability
DIVERSIFIED FOF (20+)
~8%
loss probability
Source: Vanguard 2025
Model assumptions
Loss probabilities interpolated between confirmed data points (Vanguard 2025)
Diversification benefits plateau at ~20–25 funds (Dompé 2019; Gredil/Liu/Sensoy 2024)
Distribution shape is illustrative — actual outcomes depend on vintage, strategy, and manager quality
Model assumes funds of similar strategy and vintage mix

Probability distributions shown are illustrative models based on published academic research (Vanguard 2025, Gredil/Liu/Sensoy 2024). They do not represent the expected performance of any Esinli Capital fund or any specific investment. Actual outcomes depend on manager selection, vintage year, market conditions, and other factors.

Esinli Capital is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or member of FINRA or SIPC. Nothing on this page constitutes investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All inputs are illustrative. All outputs are estimates based on simplified models. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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